My Ravens fan friend Matt: Hey, what are the odds of getting TO?

Me: The same odds as Sergio Kindle falling down a set of stairs and not doing it dead drunk?

Two sets of stairs Sergio? One set wasn’t enough for you? You had to go for two?  What did you say to yourself … “oh man, here I am on this landing, I’ve already fallen down one set of stairs why not make it a set of sets?”

In all seriousness, we wish Sergio a speedy recovery from his mishap, but you have to wonder if there’s more to the story than a simple late night booboo.  I mean, when was the last time you fell down a set of steps, even in the dark, even in a strange house?  And by the way don’t try and wish the same thing on me, I currently live in a one-story ranch style home Ravens fans … nyah nyah!!!

Onto the mailbag.

Eugene

Don’t you think Dustin Keller is under performing for a first round pick? Can we give him some flack too?  He is doing ok, but no where near elite…thoughts?

I don’t think he’s underperformed at all, I’d say he’s on the mark with most of the other top TEs of late and some consistency going into his third season could be a boost.  When you consider he came into the system in April his first year, didn’t meet his QB until mid-August and then had to re-learn the tendencies of a whole new QB during the next offseason?  I think that has to factor in somewhat.

I guess my question back would be based on what measurement is he disappointing?  While I’d love for Keller to put up Antonio Gates numbers of catches in any given year, the difference is that the San Diego WRs weren’t that great until recently, so it was more necessary for Gates to be that sort of player – and even then he’s a super unique talent.  Keller is competing with a very reliable target in Jerricho Cotchery, and now Edwards and Holmes. 

I fully believe that Keller would be a great fit for the Jets if he can land in the 60-70 catch area for the foreseeable future.  Maybe if there is one area I’d like to see him get better at, it’s the touchdown totals, and based on how he played in the playoffs (12 REC, 181 Yards, 3 TDs) I don’t think that’s going to be a problem going forward … but don’t expect 16 TDs a year either.

Going back to the past few years in the draft, I compiled a quick list of the top two TEs from every class, and you can see, Keller’s first two years is in line with most everyone else’s.  Where most pass-catchers really separate themselves is in their third year.  I do think that this season will 

If you look at most young Tight Ends drafted early, Keller seems on pace.  I do think that if Keller is going to become elite, we’ll know this year.  This is where the elite like Heath Miller or Vernon Davis tend to separate themselves from the pack …

Jeremy C

True or False: Mark Sanchez has a higher ceiling than Chad Henne.

Ack … this one is going to make my brain asplode Scanners style, and likely turn you all against me … hooray!  To me, these sorts of questions are like one of those “how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?” or “who is a better QB, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning” arguments … I think that it comes down to the definition of the person answering the question but that ultimately it’s a subjective answer that has no real definitive answer .

So … in my best Socratic Methodology, how do you define “ceiling?” I would go by the Matt Williamson school of thought that ceiling refers mostly to physical potential, which would lead one to say the more prototypical Henne.

As a counter to that, Jeff George was one of the greatest “ceiling” quarterbacks ever, and he was little more than a hot mess.  Ryan Leaf had great ceiling and until JaMarcus came along, was considered the biggest draft bust of all time.  Some of the most gifted physical athletes can’t always put it together.  While I think Henne is a solid player, and while I am not comparing Henne to George or Leaf, I think that physical tools are just part of the picture.  There’s a reason that Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round.  In the end, ceiling means nothing, it’s what they do with the teams put in place for them – for instance, Drew Brees.

Getting into an overused-not-always-understood-sports-cliche-off, whatever you think about Sanchez as a prototypical player, you can’t deny his “it” factor, which I think far outweighs Henne’s “ceiling.”

Enjoy this clips of our li’l Dreamer.

Michael S,

This doesn’t seem to be talked about much – What are the odds that T. Rich gets cut during the preseason? Is Connor the type to take any carries (ala McClain in Baltimore)? Can they afford to carry 2 FB’s all season? Are they going to carry more than 3 RB’s?

I think you are pointing out what could be one of criminally overlooked stories going into this training camp.  I think that many assume T-Rich will keep his job, but I just don’t know what the team is thinking, so I’d say 50/50.  In his favor, I think that Ryan really appreciates T-Rich’s veteran leadership, but I think his game is beginning to flag some, and a team doesn’t draft the draft’s top rated fullback if they don’t plan to make a change sooner or later. 

The question is whether it’s sooner or later?  In my mind there’s no way that the Jets expose Conner to the waivers process, which means cutting or even stashing him on the IR during cutdowns.  Conner didn’t carry the ball all that much at Kentucky, so I don’t know if there’s the potential to use him as a McClain type player for the Jets – at least this year – but Kentucky did often use him in short yardage situations, and his pass and run blocking is said to be good.  Conner could be a nice change of pace if used in short yardage situations to keep Greene more rested.  Beat writers commented during the OTAs in his abilities on specials, so that could be a factor too.  With all that said, if the Jets keep three QBs rather than four they might have the space to carry both at the start of the season. 

HALFTIME!!!!!

Porterhouse

Will there be a Jetsblog get-together in Cortland next Monday? If so, when and where?

Yes!!!! We are *efforting* (I hate that word)  that as we speak!  More info likely tomorrow.

Marc

With all of the potential in the passing game, who would you say will become the “guy”? Holmes is the most accomplished, Cotchery is mainstay, Edwards apparently had a good offseason and is a freak of nature, and Keller is a matchup headache with a potential long-term connection to Sanchez…. Sort through it.

I could see the stats being fairly even between most of the players that you just mentioned, but I think that for all the physical gifts that players like Holmes and Edwards have, trust, dependability & high percentages for targets-to-completions are what matter.  In that case, I could see it being either Cotchery or Keller, partly because of their experience in the offense, but also because they’ll play the whole year, aren’t interchangeable like Edwards and Holmes could be, and they’re seeming to have created a better rapport with Sanchez so far. 

Of those two, I’m tempted to go with the younger Keller, but I think that Cotchery still has a few very good seasons left in him so I’m going to stick with the “old” warhorse.

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